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Post 0

Thursday, October 2 - 6:24pmSanction this postReply
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Nice to see that Alan Reynolds is looking fit.

About 25 years ago or so, he authored, or co-authored a standard textbook on economics.  I have not found that with library searches, Amazon or ABE Books.  Does anyone have information on that?

Again, Laure, thanks!  Nice catch.




Post 1

Thursday, October 2 - 8:19pmSanction this postReply
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Michael, I don't know about that older book, but he has a recent one (2006) called "Income and Wealth".  I found it on Amazon:
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0313336881/?tag=catoinstitute-20

Reynolds has put out some good editorials; I may just pick up a copy of this book.




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Post 2

Thursday, October 2 - 8:25pmSanction this postReply
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That is an EXTRAORDINARY article. I look at those numbers and they make me wonder - am I becoming a conspiracy nut, is this a con-game - a fraud being perpetrated by calling it a world crisis or even a national crisis?

There is no question that we have seen major liquidity problems with one major firm after another (Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Fannie, Freddie, WaMu, Wachovia, etc.) and the Dow Jones has been up and down like a spastic yo-yo, but could it be that there is no problem beyond those companies (and a few more about to pop-off)? Could the giant crisis fizzle out by just letting the bad mortgages go to foreclosure, let the companies that bought too much bad debt go under to free up their good assets, and in a fairly short time all will be well?



Post 3

Thursday, October 2 - 8:34pmSanction this postReply
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That has been my take on this - tho, for sure, the MSM will ignore any such notions, fervently...



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Post 4

Thursday, October 2 - 8:53pmSanction this postReply
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That is an EXTRAORDINARY article. I look at those numbers and they make me wonder - am I becoming a conspiracy nut, is this a con-game - a fraud being perpetrated by calling it a world crisis or even a national crisis?
I agree and thanks for posting it, Laurie.
I suspect that the "toxic" mortgage-backed securities are owned mostly by investment banks and national banks, not much by regional banks, and hardly any by local banks. It's also probably the big commercial banks with the strongest ties to Wall Street. If that's the case, it's a clue as to whom the bailout will benefit. Like John Allison said here, the biggest beneficiaries of a bailout will be Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
 
I used the link-within-link to look at "Residual (assets less liabilities)". The numbers are pretty even there, too, much like shown in the link.
There have been modest declines in some assets.
Treasury and Agency securities (includes Fannie and Freddie):
11/01/2006         1238.6
09/17/2008         1149.6
Other securities:
03/19/2008         1456.3
09/17/2008         1379.0
Something smells fishy. The bailout seems to be of Wall Street and Main Street, but only a few Main Streets in front of very large banks, not all over the country. It's worth repeating a point from John Allison's letter: "There is no panic on Main Street and in sound financial institutions. The problems are in high-risk financial institutions and on Wall Street."
There is a proverb that links crisis and opportunity. Those taking most advantage of the opportunity are politicians and bureaucrats and their friends.

 




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Post 5

Thursday, October 2 - 9:37pmSanction this postReply
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Given this new perspective, NO bailout would be an excellent program - it would bring a needed house cleaning to Wall Street which seems to have become more badly soiled with some of that Washington dirt than I'd imagined. It would flush away some of those who don't produce anything but just hook up with congress and funnel treasure funds into private pockets.





Post 6

Friday, October 3 - 5:33amSanction this postReply
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Which is why the bailout will probably take place...



Post 7

Friday, October 3 - 8:13amSanction this postReply
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Great article, Laure!



Post 8

Friday, October 3 - 9:22amSanction this postReply
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While the data on bank loans is quite interesting, it isn't what a lot of the news is about. Much of the talk about the "credit crunch" concerns the commercial paper market, which the Forbes article really downplays.

I found some Federal Reserve statistics here. Scroll down about half-way to see the month-end level and weekly level numbers with purple background.  The numbers have been falling. Note also the size of the numbers -- a little larger than Alan Reynolds shows for business loans by banks.

Commercial paper is issued by many entities other than banks. It's very short-term stuff, nearly 2/3rds of it maturing in 4 days or less and more than 90% maturing in 40 days or less. The main buyers of commercial paper are money market funds.

(Edited by Merlin Jetton on 10/03, 2:16pm)




Post 9

Sunday, October 5 - 10:31amSanction this postReply
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I have done a little more research into commercial paper (CP).

 

I'm not highly familiar with the CP market. However, I will say CP is a cash management tool. Assume a business has a large influx of cash (e.g. sales proceeds) arriving in a few days or weeks but needs cash immediately. It can sell CP to get the cash and redeem the CP when the influx arrives. Another use mentioned in the Wikipedia article is to purchase inventory. A business could use CP proceeds to buy inventory and then redeem the CP when the inventory is sold.  Also, due to its short-term nature and consequently its rapid turnover, a general tightening of credit will most likely first appear most prominently in the CP market.

 

I still have not found a lot about the nature of the assets (collateral) behind asset backed commercial paper (ABCP). However, I have found that one of the larger issuers is Toyota Motor Credit Corporation.  "The company provides retail leasing, retail and wholesale financing, and other financial services to Toyota, Lexus, and Scion dealers and their customers for the purchase of new and used cars and trucks." (link)

 

The biggest user of all is General Electric Capital Corporation.: "GE provides loans, operating leases, financing programs, commercial insurance, equipment leasing of every kind, and other services in over 35 countries around the world." (link)  "GE Money provides credit services to more than 130 million customers — like retailers, consumers, auto dealers and mortgage lenders. Our financial products and services include a suite of offerings, from credit cards to debt consolidation to home equity loans, solutions that enable our customers to pursue their dreams." (link)

 

What about the banks? I don't have and couldn't quickly find much about their use of CP. However, from here "Commercial paper is a short-term unsecured promissory note maturing in less than 270 days issued by banks for a fee on behalf of corporations and other borrowers to raise funds from investors with idle cash. It is a low-cost alternative to bank loans. US issuers are able to efficiently raise large amounts of funds."

 

Note the phrase "on behalf of." I think you'd agree that these three concern "Main Street." Also, I take that use as a hint about unsecured CP. I assume a bank could collateralize with its own assets, but could not with a customer's assets the bank has no control over. I have also read that the greater concern about CP is about unsecured CP. 

 

Banks may have been and still are using CP to facilitate securitizing (selling off) mortgage pools, but no doubt the volume has declined.

 

Like the Wikipedia article suggests, CP is a substitute for bank loans. Given this and all the above further reinforces my earlier point that the Forbes article really downplays CP.





Post 10

Sunday, October 5 - 5:07pmSanction this postReply
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I found this video on CNBC.

Synopsis:
  • CP market is 27% smaller than it was last July
  • Money Markey Mututal Funds are the biggest investors in CP
  • They've scaled back on their purchases of CP issued by SIV's because of concerns about the CDO's backing them
  • The bankruptcy of Lehman left alot of MMMF's  holding worthless paper, so their scaling back on risk and demanding higher returns (ie, companies issuing CP will have to pay a higher interest rate)

(Edited by Jonathan Fauth on 10/05, 5:18pm)




Post 11

Sunday, October 5 - 6:04pmSanction this postReply
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I found this video on CNBC.
Synopsis:
CP market is 27% smaller than it was last July [snip]
This seems fairly consistent with the numbers per the Federal Reserve link in post 8. Assume "last July" means July 2007. That link does not show a number as of then. Year end 2006 and year end 2007 are the nearest dates.
Given the way Jonathan and the video say it, I would estimate the July 2007 number from the Oct 1 2008 number like this: 1541.3/(1-.27) = 2111.4
But I will also try a different way: 1541.3*(1.27) = 1957.5
Amazingly, the latter matches the year end 2006 number.
If the drop is the result of a drop in CP used for securitizing mortgage pools, then it is not nearly as alarming. Indeed, it's a blessing.




Post 12

Tuesday, October 7 - 6:26amSanction this postReply
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Fed to buy massive amounts of [commercial paper]
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081007/financial_meltdown.html

A few seconds ago the S&P 500 Index was up 0.73%. GE was up 4.9%.

(Edited by Merlin Jetton on 10/07, 6:42am)




Post 13

Tuesday, October 7 - 6:47amSanction this postReply
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The Fed could then choose who it wants to succeed/fail. The Fed is gaining power. The USD is quickly loosing legitimacy. Or am I mistaken?



Post 14

Tuesday, October 7 - 7:00amSanction this postReply
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The Fed could then choose who it wants to succeed/fail. ... Or am I mistaken?
That's correct. I'll bet on the biggies getting money, like General Electric Capital Corporation and Toyota Motor Credit Corporation.




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Post 15

Tuesday, October 7 - 10:01amSanction this postReply
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Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) Terms and Conditions
The CPFF will be structured as a credit facility to a special purpose vehicle (SPV) authorized under section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act.

3. Discounts for Individuals, Partnerships, and Corporations

In unusual and exigent circumstances, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, by the affirmative vote of not less than five members, may authorize any Federal reserve bank, during such periods as the said board may determine, at rates established in accordance with the provisions of section 14, subdivision (d), of this Act, to discount for any individual, partnership, or corporation, notes, drafts, and bills of exchange when such notes, drafts, and bills of exchange are indorsed or otherwise secured to the satisfaction of the Federal Reserve bank: Provided, That before discounting any such note, draft, or bill of exchange for an individual, partnership, or corporation the Federal reserve bank shall obtain evidence that such individual, partnership, or corporation is unable to secure adequate credit accommodations from other banking institutions. All such discounts for individuals, partnerships, or corporations shall be subject to such limitations, restrictions, and regulations as the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System may prescribe.

[12 USC 343. As added by act of July 21, 1932 (47 Stat. 715); and amended by acts of Aug. 23, 1935 (49 Stat. 714) and Dec. 19, 1991 (105 Stat. 2386.]





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