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Post 0

Friday, May 16 - 11:37pmSanction this postReply
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I just saw RFK Jr. on David Letterman. He was trying to argue for alternative energy (wind, solar, etc.) from a supposed free market perspective. The "alternative" is an alternative from oil-dependence.

He said Iceland went "alternative" and is now the richest country in the world (per capita). He said Sweden went "alternative" and is now the 6th richest country in the world (per capita). He said that we borrow $1 billion a day to import foreign oil. He said that there are subsidies which keep oil more profitable than alternatives. He said the wind in North Dakota alone could power the whole country's energy use. He said the sun in 19% of Arizona could power the whole country's energy use.

He said that we could go "alternative", but that we are more of a command & control economy than countries like Sweden -- with our Big Business in bed with our Big Gov -- and so we won't go off of oil because of the special interests of a few elites (Bush, Cheney, etc.). He said that 75% of Democratic officials are corrupt. He said that 95% of Republican officials are corrupt.

Letterman jumped on this same bandwagon and quoted a friend of his: "The problem is Bush and Cheney."

The reason that I bring this up is partly because it's now big news (as is anything that makes it onto Letterman). It's more refined than the usual run-o-the-mill, emotionalism-instead-of-rationalism that you get from folks like Michael Moore. The problem -- as is usually the problem with mass media -- is that it was all one-sided "debate" (preaching), rather than a balanced dialectical discourse (which is the best way for humans to discover the truth of any matter).

Can other folks here speak to these half-dozen (or so) points of argument by RFK Jr. -- to provide that balanced discourse?

Ed



Post 1

Saturday, May 17 - 4:57amSanction this postReply
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He's right about the winds in North Dakota - the only problem is that it is in the flight path of migrating birds - and windmills lined there would slaughter the lot... sadly....



Post 2

Saturday, May 17 - 6:59amSanction this postReply
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Does anyone have any idea of the impact of losing most of the species of migrating birds in the Americas?

Is it a rational trade-off compared to the harms/benefits of "Business-As-UsuOIL?

Ed



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Post 3

Saturday, May 17 - 9:00amSanction this postReply
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Is it a rational trade-off compared to the harms/benefits of "Business-As-UsuOIL?



NO - aside from the  idiotic moritorium on shale oil development, which for oil would be of great benefit. these birds are responsible for keeping loads of various insectoidal pests at bay, as well as, hummingbirds for instance, pollinating flowers and other plants, and dispersing seeds to spread natural diversity - for naturally optimum development.... and that's just for starters.....




Post 4

Saturday, May 17 - 10:41amSanction this postReply
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Ed,

I was under the impression that we were getting a pretty good handle on migratory patterns, as well as windmill design and placement that reduces bird blending. I'll dig around to try and substantiate this impression.

Jordan



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Post 5

Saturday, May 17 - 1:45pmSanction this postReply
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When it's profitable to use alternative energy, then it will make economic sense to use it, but not before. Of course, when it's profitable to use it, then it will be used. So there is no point in promoting its use politically, when the profit motive guarantees that it will be used when appropriate.

- Bill



Post 6

Saturday, May 17 - 1:51pmSanction this postReply
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He said Iceland went "alternative" and is now the richest country in the world (per capita). He said Sweden went "alternative" and is now the 6th richest country in the world (per capita). He said that we borrow $1 billion a day to import foreign oil. He said that there are subsidies which keep oil more profitable than alternatives.

He'd have to be more specific for me to believe him.  Sweden is big on subsidies, too:

Sweden has a relatively large amount of hydropower installations, making up for most of Sweden’s renewable energy production. Considering other forms of renewable energy Sweden has not been a (European) key player but is currently trying to improve its renewable contribution. The OFFROT subsidy scheme (for improved energy efficiency and conversion to renewable energy) was initiated in 2005 – it allows for a maximum of 70% contribution in the investment of solar PV cells.

By 2010 Sweden aims to provide 60% of its electricity output from renewable resources.

Can I use Renewable Energy?

Yes you can! The switch from non-renewable to (partly) renewable energy is made by a growing number of businesses, organizations and individuals.

Get your own renewable energy system.

Until the end of 2008 the Swedish government might sponsor your investment in solar energy by up to 70%. Read more about the OFFROT subsidy scheme.

 

http://www.switchpower.eu/documents/Renewable_Energy.pdf

 

So I guess he's saying subsidies for his pet projects are better than subsidies for the GOP's.

And what does Jr. mean by "richest?"  Sweden's producers and workers pay like 70% tax!




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Post 7

Saturday, May 17 - 3:55pmSanction this postReply
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He [Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.] said Iceland went "alternative" and is now the richest country in the world (per capita).
Teresa replied, "what does Jr. mean by 'richest'? Sweden's producers and workers pay like 70% tax!"

Teresa, RFK, Jr. was referring to Iceland as the richest country, not Sweden. Of course, the citizens of Iceland are heavily taxed as well.

In any case, RFK Jr.'s statement reflects a profound misconception about what constitutes wealth. A country's wealth is not synonymous with its GDP (its gross domestic product), which is strictly a monetary calculation that reflects spending on final goods and services. Wealth depends as well on how those goods and services are allocated, which in turn depends on how much free trade there is within that country. The more free trade, the better the allocation, because in a market transaction, people value what they receive more than what they give up in exchange for it. So they are always wealthier after a trade than they are before the trade.

For example, two countries could have the same GDP, but have it allocated very differently. Suppose the allocation in one country were such that people were not happy with the goods they possessed and preferred to trade them for the goods of others, but were prevented by various laws and regulations from doing so or from doing so efficiently and easily. By contrast, suppose that the other country with the same GDP did not have these impediments to free trade, such that its citizens could easily trade their goods and services for the goods and services of others. If unlike the first country, the trade in the second country took place, no new goods would have been produced, but people would nonetheless be wealthier, because they would now have more of what they wanted.

To make this clear, suppose that I have a baseball glove, and you, a baseball bat, and let's say that I would prefer to have the bat, and you, the glove. So we trade. As a result of the trade, we will each be better off -- we will each be wealthier -- even though no new production has taken place.

Gross domestic product doesn't account for this, because it is strictly a measure of spending on final goods and services. So GDP doesn't include the sale of previously owned goods, like old houses and used cars, which if they change hands in trade increase the wealth of both the buyer and seller, who will now have more of what they want.

Also, because GDP is simply a reflection of how much money is spent on final goods and services, it says nothing about their quality. For example, a slide rule used to cost more than an electronic calculator does today, even though the latter is a far superior tool of calculation.

Moreover, spending on private goods and services cannot be compared to spending on government goods and services, because the government can force people to spend more than they would be willing to spend for a good or service produced by the government, thereby artificially inflating GDP as a measure of a country's wealth. As Economics Professor Carole E. Scott notes,

"Because people don't have to buy a car, and if they do, because there are other car manufacturers, they don't have to buy a Ford, what people pay for Fords doesn't exceed what they are worth to the buyer. The same isn't necessarily true of government-provided services because the public is forced to pay for them through taxes, regardless of the valuation the public places on government-provided services. (The ballot box is the only way the public can do anything about the cost of government-provided services exceeding their value to the public.)

"While what Fords sell for and how many of them are sold determines how much what Ford produces adds to GDP, how much the government spends determines how much what it produces adds to GDP. So, the more money the government wastes, the higher GDP will be." (http://www.westga.edu/~bquest/1996/csgdp.html)

Are you beginning to see how a heavily taxed welfare state like Iceland could be considered "wealthier" than the U.S. when GDP is used as a standard for measuring wealth?

There are many other problems with using GDP as a measure of wealth that I've neglected to mention. They can be found in the excellent article by Professor Scott whose URL I cited.

- Bill





Post 8

Saturday, May 17 - 8:27pmSanction this postReply
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Bill,

When it's profitable to use alternative energy, then it will make economic sense to use it, but not before. Of course, when it's profitable to use it, then it will be used. So there is no point in promoting its use politically, when the profit motive guarantees that it will be used when appropriate.
This is a limited perspective. It reminds me of my college professor -- the first man to clone a frog -- when he said that if there were alternative medicines which helped cancer, then they'd already be in mainstream use (because doctors aren't dumb). It's a fallacy to think that way. Your quote -- like my professor's glib statement -- presumes free market mechanics with no special regulations, subsidies, or franchises that close-off the entry of competing producers.

But that's not the reality of the situation with the U.S. medicine -- nor its energy -- market. To bypass the limitation of your quote, you'd have to address how "corporatism" has infected these markets in the U.S. (by getting in bed with the government) -- and how that prevents us from getting the most for our money (while a few special elites cash-in).

Any one of much more than a dozen examples, available upon request.

Ed

(Edited by Ed Thompson on 5/17, 8:33pm)




Post 9

Saturday, May 17 - 8:37pmSanction this postReply
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A Kennedy Changes his Spots?

First, Iceland is a volcano. It doesn't sit near a volcano. It is a volcano...to be fair, a bunch of volcanic vents, rifts, calderas and flows. Free hot water is more of a problem than a benefit when you are siting on a geyser.

Second, even if we could turn North Dakota into a wind farm, we couldn't transport the electricity without building a new superconducting electric grid. That would be cool, but imagine all the environmental impact statements.

Third, I am glad Robert spoke up for the birds, and except for the fact that hummingbirds don't travel through North Dakota, he is essentially right. We most certainly do not want to kill off the migratory birds, but I am skeptical of claims posed on the size of the blender threat, and expect some solution could be found. (A relative of mine works for the Massachusetts as an ecologist and she says that the main problem with the windmill project off Nantuckett is the aesthetic objections of - can you guess who?)

In any case, Bill is absolutely right. And the market solution has long been known - nuclear energy. Only one problem. RFK Jr. is one of their biggest detractors.

RFK Jr. has made a two-decade career of whining about every real, possible, or imaginable threat or solution to the problems of the greater New York area. Now Letterman (in NYC) gives him a national forum, and like the Democrats running pro-life pro-gun candidates, rather than fade into irrelevance, he now starts talking the free-market talk. And we buy it.





Post 10

Saturday, May 17 - 8:42pmSanction this postReply
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Rev', I'll wait for Jordan to chime in.

Teresa, good questions.

Bill, great point about government-lifted GDPs.

RFK Jr. also said that the "true" price of gas is about $10 a gallon -- and that subsidies etc. are what it is that have allowed for us to pay less than $2 a gallon (pre-tax) for most of the past decade or more. Who here can address THAT?

:-)

Ed




Post 11

Saturday, May 17 - 9:09pmSanction this postReply
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Ed,

Regarding your Post #8, what I meant by the political promotion of alternative energy is what the ecologists are doing, viz., suggesting subsidies for solar, wind, etc. Yes, there is already some governmental intervention in the energy market, but considering what the ecologists would like to see, our energy market is comparatively free. The profit motive still operates, and supply and demand still determine what kind of energy is being produced. Substituting solar and wind for fossil fuels is still not cost effective, and that has nothing to do with "corporativism," as you call it. It's conceivable that nuclear power might be cost effective, but there is such a strong political opposition to it in this country that it is unlikely to be adopted any time soon, regardless of economic feasibility.

- Bill



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Post 12

Saturday, May 17 - 9:32pmSanction this postReply
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Ed, I didn't see the show. But if you accurately reported what RFK Jr. said on Letterman, I say RFK Jr. is full of crap. That's been my conclusion before.

Treating wind power and solar power as trade-offs with oil is absurd. Wind and solar are used for generating electricity, and petroleum is largely used for cars, trucks and airplanes. Electricity generation in the U.S. is about 50% from coal, 20% natural gas, 20% nuclear (source). Electricity consumption in the U.S.A. is about 4,000 million MW (source).

Let's see if RFK Jr.'s claims about solar, wind, AZ and ND make any sense.  

Suppose half of AZ were blanketed with solar panels like the Serpa plant in Portugal. That plant expanded to one sq_mi would generate about 47MW.  AZ is 114,000 sq_mi.   47*114,000*0.5 = 2,679,000. That is way less than 1% of 4,000 million!

Even disregarding the birds, suppose half of ND were blanketed with windmills. T. Boone Pickens wants to build a wind farm in Texas, generating (high estimate) 4000 MW using 312.5 sq_mi (source). ND is 70,762 sq_mi. 0.5 * 4000 * 70,762 / 312.5 =  452,877.  Again, that is way less than 1% of 4,000 million!

Iceland's "alternative energy" -- for electricity only -- is from hydroelectric and geothermal. The USA does not have a comparable geography. Iceland has a pretty high GDP per capita, but it's not first by any of the rankings here.  Also, Iceland's population is about 300,00 people, so it's pretty absurd to compare it to the USA.

Sweden's "alternative energy" -- for electricity only -- is about half hydroelectric and half nuclear. The USA does not have a comparable geography for hydoelectric. And I doubt RFK Jr. endorses building a large number of nuclear power plants in the USA.

I'd be very curious to learn what RFK Jr. means by a "free market." I'd guess it means heavy government subsidies to people/businesses RFK Jr. favors, rather than those Bush and Cheney might favor. I often hear claims about subsidies to the oil industry. I have yet to figure out what exactly these subsidies are. More likely than not, if anything, it means subsidies to develop alternative energy sources, which is exactly what the claimant wants -- except for who gets the subsidy. 

If RFK Jr. believes the alternatives are so great, he and like-minded folks should invest their own money in them, with no gov't subsidy via taxes.

His claim that we borrow $1 billion a day to import foreign oil is utterly absurd. Such borrowing is by the US gov't to fund all its spending, especially Medicare and the Iraq War. If an oil company borrows money to buy crude oil, it's a short-term debt which is soon paid off with refinery income.

(Edited by Merlin Jetton on 5/18, 9:31am)




Post 13

Sunday, May 18 - 6:09amSanction this postReply
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I often hear claims about subsidies to the oil industry. I have yet to figure out what exactly these subsidies are. More likely than not, if anything, it means subsidies to develop alternative energy sources, which is exactly what the claimant wants -- except for whom gets a subsidy. 


I agree here - often wondered this myself, and think your conclusions probably the most correct.....
[unless they somehow considering the oil gained from Saudii as 'subsidized']




Post 14

Sunday, May 18 - 11:53amSanction this postReply
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Merlin wrote:
Electricity consumption in the U.S.A. is about 4,000 million MW (source).
That statement is not correct. The source cited gives 3.8 trillion kWh. That final 'h' is quite important.

The Serpa plant is described as '11 megawatt' which means that 11 megawatt or 1100 kW is its peak, instantaneous output. Its actual output would be measured in kWh, ie, killwatt hours which would be far less than 24 * 1100 kW per day. The wikipedia article does not give any actual production numbers so it is impossible to compare its output to the consumption of the US.



Post 15

Sunday, May 18 - 3:16pmSanction this postReply
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Have uranium, have knowledge to free neutrons, moderate, and make steam to turn turbine.

Will let you travel without combustion engine.

 

Yes we can.

 
(And the author of that Presidential campaign motto,
which he may have gotten from Bob the Builder,
he too has refused to rule out more nukes.)




Post 16

Sunday, May 18 - 3:29pmSanction this postReply
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Replying to post 14.

I was aware of comparing "apples and oranges", but I didn't know how to put them on the same basis and had not found numbers for U.S. electricity capacity (contra consumption over time). Since then I found some numbers here, specifically that net summer capacity is about one million megawatts. On the other hand, the numbers I computed for AZ and ND were very generous, especially for AZ. Adjusting for the length and intensity of sunshine and transmission loss would reduce the numbers drastically. In summary it seems RFK Jr.'s claims about solar, wind, AZ and ND aren't as absurd as post 12 suggests, but they still seem absurb.





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Post 17

Sunday, May 18 - 9:23pmSanction this postReply
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As for wind power... It's only 5% efficient for the total amount of kinetic energy we can pull from the wind blades. It's not a solution, but rather it could be a problem if we carve up the Great Plains and its fertile soil needed for food to cover power. Here's the real issue, and oddly Heinlein pinned it right in Friday, we got all the power we'll ever need from coal, but we don't have a means to store it. You see, it takes on average 24 hours to spin up any steam driven turbine, so the only peak power systems we have to date is hydro-electric dams. And they're only in certain areas, the other possible areas couldn't be sustained either from higher than normal silt content in the rivers in question or simply because of the "not in my backyard" mentality. But as I stated the long term goal shouldn't be the disposal of traditional power systems or even to ignore alternative power systems, but to produce a power storage system that is efficient. If you can make such a device you could power cities any time with any population size, just truck in the power storage units and let loose the juice. Until then, no matter how many wind mills, coal plants, nuclear power plants, and the like we'll ever make, we'll never capture 90% of all the power we produce to be used by anyone for any real purposes.


-- Brede



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Post 18

Monday, May 19 - 9:33amSanction this postReply
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His whole argument is filled with half truths and outright lies.  He probably assumes we would have 100% efficiency (somehow - how? - blank out -) for his figures on AZ or wind.  Total garbage - just take any one statement and look at it closely and try to find proof, you will find he is nowhere near the reality.

Besides, didn't he die?  How many of them per litter?  Where is a small plane or tree when you need one?




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Post 19

Monday, May 19 - 11:59amSanction this postReply
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It should also be noted that RFK Jr. was a vocal opponent a few years ago when there was a proposal to build a wind farm in Nantucket Sound south of Cape Cod where the Kennedy family owns property.
http://www.orwelltoday.com/windmillscapecod.shtml
http://www.grist.org/news/muck/2006/01/12/capecod/#continues




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